On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. and Iran have had “productive conversations” about a “total resolution”.
Iran has denied any talks between the nations.
Since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes in February, thousands have been killed across the region, mainly in Iran.
Meanwhile, Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven up global oil prices.
So, is the conflict ending?
Background
On 28 February, the U.S. joint strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. His son Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed to the position on 9 March.
Iran returned strikes on Israel and U.S-associated infrastructure in the Middle East, such as in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have continued.
Iran-backed, Lebanon-based group Hezbollah launched rockets at Israel. Israel retaliated with strikes on Beirut.
Both Iran and Israel have struck energy infrastructure, such as oil fields.
U.S. comments
On Saturday (U.S. time), Trump threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if they did not “fully open, without threat” the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours.
Two days later, Trump posted to Truth Social to say the U.S. and Iran have had “very good and productive conversations” about ending “hostilities in the Middle East”.
Trump said he had instructed the Department of War to “postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure”.
Talks
On Sunday, Egypt’s Foreign Affairs Ministry said phone calls had been held between the U.S. and regional leaders, including from Iran.
Egyptian Foreign Affairs Minister Badr Abdel-Aty spoke to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff.
A Ministry spokesman said the discussions were about “the security and stability of the region” due to the conflict, including to trade movement, oil and supply chain issues.
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Iran
Responding to Trump’s claims, Iranian Parliament Speaker MB Ghalibaf said: “No negotiations have been held with the U.S.”
Ghalibaf called the comments “fake news... used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the U.S. and Israel are trapped.”
Iran’s Fars News Agency reported a security official reiterated that “there’s no direct or indirect contact with the U.S,” similarly blaming “pressure from financial markets”.
Israel
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Trump’s update “an opportunity to leverage the tremendous achievements” the U.S. and Israel “have reached”.
He said a potential agreement “will safeguard our vital interests.”
Netanyahu added that Israel is “continuing to strike in Iran and Lebanon” to “smash... the missile program and nuclear program”.
“We continue to deal severe blows to Hezbollah,” he said.
Markets
Since the announcement, the price of oil per 158-litre barrel decreased from $US112 ($AU160) on Sunday to $US101 ($AU145) on Monday. This is still higher than pre-conflict prices ($US71 in February).
Key stock market indices have increased, including the Dow Jones, which is up 1.38%.
The ASX 200 (the 200 largest companies listed on the Australian Stock Exchange) is up today, after hitting a 10-month low yesterday.
Expert comments
University of Melbourne Senior Lecturer in Political Science Dara Conduit said: “It seems that some back-channel discussions are beginning”.
Conduit noted that “there is also little middle ground between the warring parties.”
University of Sydney American Politics Associate Professor David Smith said Trump “switch[ing] to talking about ‘making a deal’ shows he no longer thinks a purely military solution is possible.”
