Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen has admitted Australia is projected to miss its 2035 climate target
It comes two months after the Government announced it would aim to reduce carbon emissions by between 62% and 70% on 2005 levels by 2035.
Current modelling suggests Australia is on track to achieve a 48% emissions reduction by 2035, and will fall short of the legislated 2030 goal.
Government targets
The Government has legislated two climate targets.
The first is reducing emissions by 43% compared to 2005 levels by 2030.
The second is net-zero by 2050. This refers to balancing the amount of greenhouse gas emissions produced and taken out of the atmosphere.
Since these commitments are legislated, they require the Government and its relevant agencies to meet them.
In September, the independent Climate Change Authority recommended Australia should aim to reduce carbon emissions by between 62% and 70% by 2035.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese accepted this advice.
This target was formally submitted to the UN at the COP30 Climate Summit.
This means it became part of Australia’s commitment under the Paris Agreement, which binds countries to reduce emissions so that global temperatures don’t warm beyond a certain point this century.
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Projections
The latest figures from the Department of Climate Change show Australia has cut emissions by 28.5% since 2005. In the past year, emissions fell 2.2%.
Australia is projected to achieve a 42% emissions reduction by 2030, falling one percentage point short of its legislated 43% target.
The department projects Australia will achieve a 48% emissions reduction by 2035, well below the lower 62% emissions reduction target.
Achieving the upper 70% target would require much steeper annual reductions.
Bowen defended the shortfall, saying: “It is normal for there to be a gap between projected emissions and a target 10 years in the future.”
“As new policies are developed and implemented, the emissions outlook improves. That’s what a target is for — to drive new initiatives and work,” Bowen told Parliament.
Response
Opposition Leader Sussan Ley said the shortfall is part of a “trifecta of failure on energy policy. Prices are up, reliability down and today we again see emissions are flatlining.”
Greens Leader Larissa Waters criticised the Government, saying it is “nowhere near” its climate goals.
“These are diabolical pollution numbers that suggest we are on track for cataclysmic climate change,” Waters said.
