This week, TDA has received a number of messages asking us if Labor will be in power “forever”.
The questions come off the back of the party’s major electoral win and news of the Coalition splitting up.
Let’s explore what all of this means.
Election results
At the 3 May election, Labor won 93 seats, winning several from the Liberals and the Greens. It was the most seats ever won by Labor at a federal poll.
Counting is still underway to determine the winner of two seats: Calwell, in Melbourne (the “most complex” preference count ever) and Bradfield, in Sydney — where two votes separate independent Nicolette Boele from Liberal Gisele Kapterian.
Bradfield is set to go to a recount.
Coalition (or not?)
The Coalition is a formal, long-standing alliance between the Liberal and National parties.
Since the parties formed an alliance 80 years ago, they have only split up three times, including this week.
The Nationals announced it would separate from the Liberals over disagreements on four key policy directions, including overturning the national ban on nuclear power.
If the Coalition remains split, it could mean the Liberal Party’s 28 MPs in the lower house turns into the official opposition.
Crisis talks between Liberal leader Sussan Ley and her Nationals counterpart David Littleproud yesterday and today have opened up the possibility of ending the breakup.
Either way, when the 48th Parliament opens on 22 July, Labor faces a fractured opposition.
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So, does that mean Labor will stay in power indefinitely?
Labor in power
There are two main reasons why not.
First, the Liberal Party has previously won an election with enough seats to form a majority without the Nationals.
In 1996, the Liberals swept to power, led by former Prime Minister John Howard, winning 76 seats. While he was theoretically able to govern without the Nationals, Howard opted to honour the Coalition agreement.
Tony Abbott also won 71 seats for the Liberal Party in 2013, far ahead of Labor’s 55 seats. While not a majority, he would have been in a much stronger position to form government than Labor.
Second, the size of Labor’s majority does not guarantee political stability.
Internal party issues have already surfaced after two frontbenchers in the last parliament, Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus and Industry Minister Ed Husic, were dumped from the new ministry.
It was due to a deal involving Labor’s internal factions and the number of Cabinet spots each can take up.
Husic blamed Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles, calling him a “factional assassin”.
Total power
It’s also worth noting that Labor doesn’t control the entire Parliament.
Labor still needs to pass legislation through the Senate (upper house), where it doesn’t have a majority.
While it has increased its presence in the Senate, Labor will require the support of either the Liberal Party or Greens to pass laws.
