Ukraine and the U.S. have been in negotiations on a plan to end Russia’s war this week.
Documents leaked late last week revealed a U.S-proposed plan which largely favoured Russia, requiring Ukraine to give up some of its territory.
Ukrainian and U.S. negotiators met in Geneva, Switzerland on Sunday (local time) to talk through the plan.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the discussions “very very positive”.
Background
Russia first invaded Ukraine in February 2022. UN data shows more than 14,000 civilians have been killed since then. Neither side releases data on the number of soldiers killed.
Today, Russia controls at least one-fifth of Ukrainian territory.
Since being sworn in as President in January, Trump has engaged with Ukraine and Russia to strike a peace deal, following an election promise to end the war within “24 hours”.
Here’s what’s in the U.S’ latest plan.
Security
Under the plan, Ukraine would have the ultimate authority to govern itself, outside of Russian control.
However, its military would be capped at 600,000 personnel, down from a current estimate of around 880,000.
Last week, Ukrainian representative Khrystyna Hayovyshyn told the UN Security Council: “Ukraine will not accept any limits on its rights to self-defence or on the size or capabilities of its armed forces.”
NATO
Since 2008, Ukraine has sought membership of NATO, a military alliance of 32 European and North American countries. If one member is attacked, the others are bound to go to war in its defence.
As part of the peace proposal, Ukraine would have to “enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO,” and NATO would have to promise not to admit Ukraine.
In exchange, Ukraine would receive a NATO-style security guarantee, where the U.S. and allies could respond with military force if Russia attacks it again.
“It is expected that Russia will not invade neighbouring countries and NATO will not expand further,” the proposal says.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine, Finland (which borders Russia) and Sweden have applied for and been granted NATO membership.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is strongly opposed to NATO and considers it to be encroaching on Russian territory.
The U.S. also proposed that it could mediate a “dialogue” between Russia and NATO to “resolve all security issues and create conditions for de-escalation”.
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The plan included a provision that NATO would not station any troops in Ukraine.
Several NATO countries, including France and the UK, have previously committed to keeping some troops in Ukraine after the war’s end.
While Ukraine would not be allowed to be part of NATO, under the proposal it would be allowed to join the European Union.
Territory
The U.S. also proposed Ukraine cede territory to Russia, including Crimea.
Russia illegally annexed Crimea in 2014. The proposal states that the U.S. would recognise this territory as “de facto Russian,” along with Luhansk and Donetsk.
Parts of Donetsk still under Ukrainian control would be ceded to Russia but deemed a neutral buffer zone with no Russian military presence.
Hayovyshyn told the Security Council: “Our land is not for sale.”
Economy
The draft proposes $US100 billion ($AU154 billion) in frozen Russian assets go toward “U.S-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine”.
Some sanctions placed on Russia since the war began would be lifted, but would be reinstated should it invade Ukraine again.
The plan proposes Russia be “re-integrated into the global economy,” including returning to the G8 alliance.
The G8 kicked Russia out in 2014 for illegally annexing Crimea and became the G7.
Responses
Putin welcomed the proposal, saying it could “form the basis of a final peace settlement” if the U.S. can get Ukraine and its European allies to agree.
Zelenskyy described the plan as presenting Ukraine with a choice between “losing its dignity or the risk of losing a key partner,” and called this ”one of the most difficult moments” in the country’s history.
Trump told reporters that Zelenskyy “would have to like” the plan “or just keep fighting.”
In a later post to Truth Social, Trump said: “UKRAINE ‘LEADERSHIP’ HAS EXPRESSED ZERO GRATITUDE FOR OUR EFFORTS.”
In a response posted to X, Zelenskyy said: “Ukraine is grateful to the United States... and personally to President Trump for the assistance that... has been saving Ukrainian lives.”
The White House wants Ukraine to sign off on the framework by 27 November, saying that final decisions will be made by Zelenskyy and Trump.
