U.S. President Donald Trump has promised every U.S. adult citizen $US5,000 ($AU6,900) if his party wins the coming midterm elections.
The “dividend” would only be paid if Republicans win both the House of Representatives and the Senate in November.
Republicans are widely expected to lose the House but have a roughly even chance of holding the Senate.
Here’s what you need to know.
Midterm elections
Every two years, all seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and a third of the seats in the Senate go up for election.
(The House and the Senate are two “chambers” which make up the U.S. Congress – the equivalent of Parliament.)
Half the time, these elections coincide with the presidential elections held every four years.
The other half of the time, they are known as midterms, because they fall in the middle of the presidential term.
Midterms are considered a referendum on the sitting president’s leadership.
Midterms are also a chance to change the balance of power.
Controlling both chambers means a party controls Congress.
If the party that controls Congress is the same as the president’s party, this means the president can pass their agenda more easily.
If the parties are not the same, Congress can block or stall the president’s agenda.
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For example, during Trump’s first term in 2018, Republicans lost control of the House, making it more difficult for them to pass bills.
2026 midterms
This year, the Republicans are throwing a party convention (usually reserved for presidential election years) ahead of the midterms.
On the opening night, Trump made a speech, where he promised every adult U.S. citizen $5,000.
The payment, or “Trump Dividend” as he called it, would be conditional on Republicans winning both the House and the Senate at the midterm elections on 3 November.
Trump added the money needed to be spent entirely within the U.S.
Trump did not provide an explanation of how the payment would work or if he would ask Congress to authorise the payments.
It’s not the first time he has promised such a payment: in 2025, Trump promised a $US2,000 ($AU2,800) dividend funded by tariffs that has not yet been paid.
With more than 245 million adult U.S. citizens, the Trump Dividend would cost more than $US1.2 trillion ($AU1.7 trillion).
According to The Associated Press, within an hour of the announcement, U.S. Vice President JD Vance suggested the wealthy would not receive the dividend, and it would be funded by tariffs.
Chances
Decision Desk HQ, a U.S. election data company that provides results and forecasts to news outlets, says Republicans have a 68% chance of losing the House and a 51% chance of losing the Senate.
Republicans currently have a majority in both chambers.
Maintaining this would mean Trump has an easier time passing his agenda in the remaining two years of his term.
