What is happening in Queensland this federal election?

The Federal Election is now just under a week away, on Saturday 3 May. Mark your calendar!

In the lead-up, The Daily Aus will break down the tightest races in each state and territory.

In this piece, we’ll focus on Queensland – nicknamed the “sunshine state” – home to 5.6 million people.

Background

Let’s first take a step back. This election, you’re voting for who you want to represent your:

Local area in the House of Representatives.
State or territory in the Senate.

For this piece, we’re going to focus on the House of Representatives, because that’s the house that determines which party will be in government.

Across the country, there are 150 seats up for grabs in the House of Representatives. Queensland has 30 of those seats.

Marginal seats

Elections are normally won and lost in marginal seats.

These are the seats where the leaders spend most of their time on the campaign trails, because voters in these areas tend to switch their party allegiance from election to election.

In this piece, we are breaking down 10 of the closest contests across Queensland.

A quick note: In each seat there are multiple candidates, but we have focused on the top contenders based on current polling.

Dickson

Dickson takes in Brisbane’s northern suburbs, including parts of Strathpine and Ferny Hills, extending out to the semi-regional Dayboro and Closeburn.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has held the seat since 2001.

He is facing off against Labor’s Ali France for the third time in a row.

Ryan

Ryan takes in the leafy western suburbs of Brisbane including Indooroopilly, Ashgrove, and Ferny Grove.

The once-safe Liberal seat was won by the Greens at the 2022 election. The Greens also hold the overlapping state seat in this area.

The Liberal Party is hoping to take
it back.

Longman

Longman centres around north Brisbane suburbs, including Kallangur and Caboolture.

Local MP Terry Young has managed to hold Longman at the previous two elections despite retaining it on small margins.

High school teacher Rhiannyn Douglas will try to pick up the seat for Labor.

Leichhardt

Leichhardt is based in far-north Queensland, mostly based around Cairns and its outer suburbs.

Veteran MP Warren Entsch is retiring at this election, having held it since 1996 (with the exception of 2007-2010).

Labor has been campaigning heavily to bring former professional basketballer Matt Smith into Parliament.

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Brisbane

Brisbane is the Queensland capital. It’s a rare seat where the name of the area matches the name of the electorate.

The inner-city seat is shaping up as a three-cornered race between Labor, Liberal, and the Greens. Former Liberal MP Trevor Evans is trying to win back the seat he lost in 2022, while Labor’s Madonna Jarrett is also in the running for a second tilt.

Flynn

Flynn is a regional Queensland electorate based in Gladstone on the coast, extending to Biloela and Emerald inland.

At a state level, Gladstone is Labor’s safest seat outside Brisbane. The party has had Flynn within its sights as a potential gain since its lost the seat in 2010.

Forde

Forde is located part way between Brisbane and the Gold Coast. It includes the Logan suburbs, Waterford, and Eagleby.

Former farmer Rowan Holzberger is Labor’s candidate for Forde taking on the long-serving MP Bert Van Manen.

Fairfax

Fairfax is oriented around the Sunshine Coast, taking in Maroochydore, Coolum Beach, and Bli Bli.

While Fairfax appears to be a safe Liberal seat, the sitting MP Ted O’Brien is facing a fierce local challenge from a Climate 200-backed independent France Wiig. The seat has caused an upset for the Liberal Party in the past, having elected Clive Palmer as its local MP in 2013.

McPherson

McPherson is located on the Gold Coast, stretching from Burleigh Heads down to Coolongatta on the NSW-Queensland border. This is a traditionally safe Liberal seat. However, the current sitting MP, Liberal Karen Andrews, is retiring.

Leon Rebello, former staffer for ex-Foreign Minister Julie Bishop, will try to hang on to the seat, but is facing a challenger in climate-focused independent Erchana Murray-Bartlett. She is supported by Climate 200.

Griffith

Griffith is based on the south of the Brisbane River, taking in Greenslopes, South Brisbane, and Bulimba.

It was the seat of former Labor Prime Minister Kevin Rudd. It was held by Labor from 1998 until the 2022 election when the Greens took the seat thanks to a local surge in support.

Labor is looking to take it back this election.

Other seats

Labor

Blair 5.2%
Moreton 9.1%
Rankin 9.1%
Lilley 10.5%
Oxley 11.6%

Liberal National Party

Bonner 3.4%
Petrie 4.4%
Bowman 5.5%
Capricornia 6.6%
Groom 6.9%
Fisher 8.7%
Hinkler 10.1%
Dawson 10.4%
Fadden 10.6%
Wright 10.9%
Moncrieff 11.2%
Wide Bay 11.3%
Herbert 11.8%
Maranoa 22.1%